ELSA aims at developing novel metrics and techniques to analyse and monitor the propagation of disturbances in the ATM system.
PROJECT: ELSA – Empirically grounded agent based models for the future ATM scenario
FUNDING SCHEME: SESAR JU, Workpackage E – Long Term Research
DURATION: 2011-2015 (CLOSED)
ELSA identifies statistical regularities in long time periods – one month to one year – using techniques from Statistical Mechanics and Complex Systems theory. Examples include variations in predictability during the flight execution phase, correlation between traffic and safety metrics, seasonal fluctuations. Regularities and anomalies are identified at various levels: local, national, EU level.
A second branch of work relates to the development of an Air Traffic Simulator of increasing complexity and degree of realism, to simulate the current scenario and the future SESAR scenarios.
The last strand of work is the design and development of the prototype of a tool to monitor the current complexity status, receive a prediction of the likely development, simulate the effects of changes to the system. The ELSA tool is developed as a proof of concept, visually representing a future data-driven ATM system.
Deep Blue is the project coordinator.
We have designed the overall work concept and approach with our scientific partners of University of Palermo and Scuola Normale Superiore di Pisa, pioneering one of the first data-driven projects in ATM.
We also contribute to the selection of novel metrics and analysis techniques, assessing their operational relevance and expected benefits for SESAR.
We organise and manage the validation activities, defining which future scenarios to test and collecting feedback from operational experts.
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