Innovative solutions to predict the behaviour of “unpredictable” small aircraft flights

The key objective of ProGA is to prototype a system that can continually and automatically predict the future flight corridor (a 4D trajectory plus some uncertainty), or the volume of operation, of a light GA aircraft in-flight.

 

ProGA developed and validated a concept of technologies and systems able to perform two main functions: flight path acquisition and processing, and flight path prediction. The prediction is based on statistics from historical flights in a specific area and shared planned routes of other traffic.

 

ProGA aims to move beyond instantaneous electronic visibility of traffic towards a traffic picture of future airspace occupation. The following ProGA applications are studied:
– The presentation of areas of potential high traffic density, both during planning and in-flight
– The display of predicted conflicts with airborne traffic
– The display of the predicted future location of airborne traffic

 

The ProGA prototype consists of an application running on a tablet.
The solution is tested and evaluated during flight simulation sessions with real GA pilots.

PROJECT: ProGA – Probabilistic 4D trajectories of light General Aviation operations

FUNDING SCHEME: SESAR Work Package E

DURATION: 2013-2015 (CLOSED)

WEBSITE: http://proga.nlr.nl/

CONTACTS: damiano.taurino@dblue.it

OUR ROLE:
Deep Blue leads the design, prototyping, and evaluation of ProGA solution.

 

We develop the algorithms and the logic behind:

 

  • the collection of data coming from General Aviation,
  • their statistical analysis, aimed at the identification of recurrent patterns or “predictable” behaviours,
  • the real-time elaboration of the traffic scenario and the presentation of relevant information.

 

We are responsible of the design, development and evaluation of a usable and suitable HMI, involving GA pilots in the process, as final users of the ProGA solution.

THINGS TO KNOW:

 

  • Different GA pilot tested the ProGA solution at Deep Blue premises, with a good feedback about its functionalities, usability and domain suitability (see D-2.2 in the project website).
  • ProGA paper “Predicting the future location of a General Aviation Aircraft” has been awarded as best paper in its category at the ICRAT 2014 International Conference on Research in Air Transportation in Istanbul.
  • Deep Blue considers analysis and visualization of big data as the main driver for the development of innovative solutions to enhance safety and efficiency in General Aviation.

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